Breaking down the Bulls schedule, Part I: Can this young team out-muscle its competition in October/November? (2024)

Over the past five seasons, the Eastern Conference’s eighth seed has averaged 40.8 wins.

Consider that the baseline the Bulls must reach in order to sniff the postseason.

Whether they come anywhere close to that number after a 27-win season last year depends on a number of factors: health, chemistry, development and coaching, among others. But one unavoidable factor is the schedule, which the league released Friday, unveiling the exact road that will lead Chicago back to the postseason or leave the Bulls in the lottery.

There’s a chance the Bulls beat the odds and contend for a playoff spot. It just feels like a lot will have to go their way to do it. Chances are they’ll be on the outside looking in for the second consecutive season, but the 2018-19 campaign will be about taking another step forward, growing individually and collectively regardless of the won-loss record. Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen all figure to be better next season. Jabari Parker infuses the Bulls with more talent and one-on-one scoring ability. Rookie center Wendell Carter Jr. adds a defensive component and additional hope for the future.

The roster offers considerably more intrigue than it did a year ago, and most believe the Bulls are in fact on the right track.

To get a read on how well they might fare this coming season, I broke down the schedule month by month, examining everything from their 14 back-to-back sets and the degree of difficulty of each month to their toughest tests and their most worry-free wins. At the end of each breakdown, I offer an early record prediction. By the end of this exercise, we’ll see how close the Bulls get to that magic number of 40.8.

For the first installment, I’ve combined the October schedule and November schedule into one big 23-game stretch. Here’s how it breaks down.

Home/road: 12 at home, 11 on the road.

Back to backs: Four. Three are scheduled for November, tying March for the most of any month. The first November pairing is a rare set of consecutive home games. It’ll be played Nov. 2 and 3 against Indiana and Houston. It’s one of two such sets for the Bulls this season. Last year, the Bulls had one such back-to-back, knocking off Minnesota in thrilling fashion on Feb. 9 before wilting against Washington one night later. Two-thirds of the league have either two (12 teams) or three (eight teams) sets of back-to-back home games. New Orleans raked in the most home back-to-back sets with four, greatly softening its 13 scheduled back-to-back sets.

The Bulls have a manageable slate of back-to-backs in October and November, beginning with a pair of very winnable games at Charlotte on Oct. 26 and at Atlanta on Oct. 27. The next three all come against playoff teams, but the Bulls should benefit from the Indiana-Houston set coming inside the United Center, as well as minimal travel time from Milwaukee on Nov. 16 back home to face Toronto on Nov. 17 and against Miami in Chicago on Nov. 23 to Minnesota on Nov. 24.

Degree of difficulty: Frightful. The Bulls would be wise to take advantage of a relatively favorable October portion, when only two of eight games come against playoff teams. After that, it appears to be tough sledding. November brings the second-highest percentage of playoff teams among any month. Five of the 13 playoff teams the Bulls will face over October and November are West teams. Chicago will play only six Western Conference playoff teams from January on.

It’s impossible to adequately determine level of difficulty judging the competition solely on last season’s playoff qualifiers. Non-playoff teams like the Pistons and Lakers figure to be improved, while playoff squads like Cleveland won’t be what they were a year ago. Teams also will over perform and underperform, as well as suffer the inevitable injury. But by boiling the opponents down to playoff qualifiers, a general barometer can be gleaned at this juncture and it offers a small glimpse into the projected strength of schedule. Based solely on that, the Bulls appear to have a brutally front-loaded schedule that could cause them to limp out of the starting blocks.

Marquee matchup: Golden State on Oct. 29. The back-to-back defending champions will make their lone appearance inside the United Center in only the seventh game of the season. It’ll be an early test for how much these Bulls have improved. Last season, they were annihilated by 49 points at Golden State and in the home matchup yielded a 19-0 second-half run before a late rally cut the final margin to seven.

There is, however, a huge potential damper for this one. The Warriors, after playing at Brooklyn, will be playing on the second night of a back to back, meaning there’s no telling who will suit up for the champs. But if even two of their five All-Stars are in the lineup, the Dubs are worth the price of admission.

Toughest test: Golden State. No reason to go with anyone else. The Warriors’ last five wins against the Bulls have come by an average margin of 26 points.

Worry-free win: It feels silly to include this category for a team that won only 27 games last season and is projected to net one additional victory this season. But the wins have to come from somewhere, right? Let’s go with Charlotte on Oct. 24. The Hornets are integrating a new coach in James Borrego, and they will be on the final game of a four-game trip as part of five games in eight nights to start the season. Somehow, Chicago also went 3-1 against Charlotte last season. So the Hornets could be ripe for a head-kicking.

Catch them while you can: Tired of the Warriors and their dominance? Rooting for the Rockets — or anyone else — to dethrone them? Houston will make its lone visit to the United Center on Nov. 3, a Saturday night, presumably still in the early phases of integrating Carmelo Anthony to the James Harden-Chris Paul-Clint Capela mix. Harden didn’t make the trip to Chicago last season due to a hamstring strain, but the Rockets won convincingly without the eventual MVP. But similar to the Warriors’ lone appearance, this one for the Rockets also follows a contest at Brooklyn one night earlier. That could lead to a Bulls upset. It also could lead to the Rockets’ stars resting.

Rookie watch: If it’s young guns you like, Bulls fans are in for an early treat over the first month-plus — and the names will get bigger by the week. Miles Bridges and the Hornets come to town on Oct. 24. Michael Porter Jr. (if healthy) and the Nuggets come on Oct. 31. Aaron Holiday, younger brother of Bulls guard Justin Holiday, arrives with the Pacers on Nov. 2. Collin Sexton and the Cavs come on Nov. 10. Luka Doncic and the Mavs come on Nov. 12. No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton and the Suns visit on Nov. 21.

Same face, new place: The biggest name over this stretch will be Kawhi Leonard. He and the Toronto Raptors come to Chicago on Nov. 17. The other half of that trade, All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan, leads the Spurs to the United Center for their lone visit on Nov. 26. Other names of note include DeAndre Jordan against the Bulls in Dallas on Oct. 22 and in Chicago on Nov. 12, Tony Parker with the Hornets in a home-and-home on Oct. 24 and 26, old friend Doug McDermott in town with the Pacers on Nov. 2 and Carmelo Anthony and the new-look Rockets on Nov. 3 in Chicago.

Prediction: 9-14. That might be a tad inflated, or more like a best-case scenario. But it’s not out of the question. The Bulls have 11 games over this first stretch against Detroit, Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta, New York, Milwaukee and Phoenix, all winnable opponents. The biggest question will be how fast can the Bulls integrate Jabari Parker and adjust to their new switch-heavy defense? Their record over these first 23 might be directly tied to that answer.

(Top photo: David Banks/USA TODAY Sports)

Darnell Mayberry is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Chicago Bulls. He spent 12 years at The Oklahoman, where he handled the Thunder beat before moving into an editor’s role. Prior to The Oklahoman, Darnell covered the University of Akron men's basketball, preps and recruiting at the Akron Beacon Journal. He is the author of "100 Things Thunder Fans Should Know And Do Before They Die." Follow Darnell on Twitter @DarnellMayberry