Election news
- Bulletin:Catch up on the main news from the campaign trail
- Labour set for biggest majority in 100 years - YouGov poll
- Minister predicted to be voted out hangs up live on Sky News
- The top Tories under threat|Why this poll is a big deal|'31 days to save Tory party'
- Farage to stand at general election|Taking over as Reform leader
- Be in the audience for our election leaders event
- Live reporting by Tim Baker and Brad Young
Expert analysis
- Jon Craig:Grim record aside, Farage has made a canny choice
- Rob Powell:Farage U-turn is a really significant development
- Adam Boulton:'Starmtroopers' are purging Labour
Election essentials
- Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
- Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
- Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans
Farage message to voters will send shivers down spine in Tory HQ
By Gurpreet Narwan, political correspondent
We've just witnessed what is probably the most dramatic moment of the general election campaign so far - Nigel Farage, a figure of fear for the Tories, is entering the fray (read more here).
All eyes will now turn to the polls, where Reform UK is performing at around 12%.
It hasn't made any major breakthroughs so far - and this vote share will not translate into a seat.
However, speaking to Sky News after the announcement, Mr Farage was adamant the party would now ascend and win more than the 3.9 million votes UKIP took in 2015.
It was at that election that Douglas Carswell - after defecting from the Tories - won a seat for UKIP. It is in this seat that Farage is now bidding to be an MP after seven failed attempts to enter the Commons.
Clacton will be viewed as a soft target for Reform. This was a strong Leave voting area and the Conservative candidate, Giles Watling, is a Remainer.
Reform UK is polling above the national average in this seaside town - YouGov and Sky News' MRP poll puts its share here at 19.5%. But the "Farage factor" cannot be underestimated. He could really win here.
All of this will send shivers down the spines of those in Tory HQ, but Sir Keir Starmer may be rubbing his hands with glee.
Polling already suggests that Reform could cost the Tories 100 seats by splitting the right wing vote across the Red Wall and Essex. It explains why the Tories were pushing the message hard that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour".
Farage has turned that on its head. The election is a foregone conclusion and the Tories are too divided to be serious in opposition, he says.
Instead, given the Tories have already lost, Farage argues that a vote for the Tories is the real wasted vote.
That's his pitch to voters who he is now inviting to join his "political takeover".
National service announcement unpopular with public, polling suggests
It was a week ago that the government was announcing its plans to reintroduce national service - after a fashion - if they won the election.
The idea is for all 18-year-olds to volunteer at least once a month, and some to join the military for the year.
Since then, pollsters at JL Partners have asked the country for their opinions on the policy.
As part of its survey, it asked 2,013 people to check boxes against answers for which statements they agreed with.
People could tick as many boxes as they want.
Some 32% of people - a total of 651 of the 2,013 - ticked the box saying it made them feel more negative about the Tories.
Meanwhile, 23% - 467 people of the 2,013 - said it made them feel better about the Conservatives.
To break that down, that's 184 more responses that thought badly of the Conservatives after the national service announcement than thought better of it - a nine point gap.
And then 24% of people - 479 - ticked the box saying it made no difference to their views.
Some 12% - 236 - said it made them feel better about Labour, while 3% - 51 - said it made them feel worse about Sir Keir Starmer's party.
And 12% - 243 - said they did not know.
Read more about the national service announcement below.
The Daily: Landslides and wipe-outs - reaction to latest election poll
Sir Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats, bigger than what Tony Blair achieved in 1997, according to the first polling projection by YouGov of the campaign.
The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, with the party getting the highest number of seats of any party at an election in history.
At the same time, the Tories are trying to boost ratings by talking about culture wars while Labour is talking about real wars in terms of what they would do for defence. And Nigel Farage has announced he's standing for Reform UK.
On the Sky News Daily, Niall Patterson talks to Sky's chief political correspondent Jon Craig about the poll and today's developments, and to Scarlett Maguire, director of the polling organisation JL Partners.
Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts
Labour 'confident but not complacent' over election hopes
Nick Thomas-Symonds is a shadow minister for Labour.
He is asked by Sophy about the major victory estimated for Sir Keir Starmer by YouGov today.
Mr Thomas-Symonds says: "Not a single vote has been cast in this general election - it hasn't been cast by post, and obviously no votes will be cast on the day until 4 July.
"Now, of course we are confident - but we are most certainly not complacent.
"I've been out all day today, my colleagues are out in their own constituencies and around the country.
"And we will continue to fight hard for every single vote until the close of polls at 10pm on 4 July.
"We will never take the voters for granted."
A vote for Reform is a vote for Labour, says Tory minister
Grant Shapps says a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.
The Tory minister's comments come after Nigel Farage announced he was standing for parliament a little earlier today.
The only possible outcomes on 5 July are either Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak become prime minister, Mr Shapps says.
On backing Reform, he says the party's voters would only end up with the Labour leader "being handed more power to do things you really don't want him to do with this country".
Shapps: My seat is always at risk
One of the cabinet ministers predicted to lose his seat by today's YouGov poll is Grant Shapps.
Speaking to Sophy Ridge, Mr Shapps says he has "always thought of it as being marginal".
Mr Shapps was the MP for Welwyn Hatfield before parliament was dissolved, and is contesting the seat again.
He says that polling in his seat that took place recently had him down as winning it.
But Mr Shapps deploys one of the most well-worn of political phrases - that "the only poll that matters is the one on election day".
But he admits knowing it is one that is oft deployed, saying he is trying not to sound "too much like a politician".
Mr Shapps is asked about what happened earlier, when he rang Sky deputy political editorSam Coateslive on air.
The defence secretary says he was presented with an "opportunity to go live on air" that "was not entirely planned" - but was pleased to "come on anyway" once Sophy's show began.
You can watch the earlier moment below:
Starmer says he's prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend UK
Before hearing from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, a reminder of what Labour had to say about his brief today.
Sir Keir Starmer said he would be prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if needed to defend the UK.
The Labour leader said thenuclear deterrent programmeis "vital" to the UK's defence so "of course" he would be prepared to use it.
He would not go into detail about what circ*mstances would require him to take that sort of action if he became prime minister.
But his comments show his determination to demonstrate Labour as a "changed party" from when it was led byJeremy Corbyn- a life-long opponent of nuclear weapons.
Read more from our political reporter Faye Brown:
'Thirty-one days to save the Tory party'
Election analyst Michael Thrasher says YouGov's poll is "pretty grim reading" for the Tories.
The Conservatives are predicted to lose huge numbers of seats, with their lowest vote share ever.
Professor Thrasher says "31 days to save the Conservative Party" is now the brief for Rishi Sunak, and the message he needs to use to rally his MPs and party members.
The Tories are "facing annihilation" if the polls don't change.
But "Sunak's message just isn't cutting through to the electorate," says Thrasher.
"They have to come out with a positive message, and they have to work on converting people who are thinking of voting for these small parties (like Reform) into reverting to the Conservatives."
Nigel Farage standing in Clacton will "concentrate the minds" of Conservatives to erode the base of Reform, he says.
As for Labour, "they don't have to do anything really".
A "safe pair of hands" message looks like being enough to win with the polls as they are.
Farage has a grim record at elections - but has made a canny choice this time
Nigel Farage today announced he was standing to be an MP in Clacton - his eighth attempt at running for parliament.
Our chief political correspondent Jon Craig has dug out the seven other times Mr Farage has tried to get a seat in Westminster.
The first was in Eastleigh in 1994, then Salisbury in 1997, Bexhill and Battle in 2001, South Thanet in 2005, Bromley and Chislehurst in the 2006 by-election, Buckingham in 2010 and South Thanet in 2015.
He lost all of them.
Clacton, Essex, where he is competing this time, was previously held by UKIP between 2014 and 2017.
Jon says that Mr Farage has made a "canny" choice by picking the seaside town to stand, as it's the kind of place Reform should expect to do well.
It has a large population of over-65s and not many graduates.
However, the Conservatives do have a majority of close to 25,000 - so it will be a big contest.
The other candidates announced for Clacton are:
- Matthew Bensilum, Liberal Democrats;
- Natasha Osben, Green Party;
- Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour Party;
- Giles Watling, Conservatives.
Why is this poll a big deal?
Our deputy political editor Sam Coates says YouGov is "putting its reputation on the line" with the poll we're discussing tonight.
It's projecting a historic majority for Labour, and a devastating result for the Conservatives and SNP.
So what makes it different to the plethora we've had already?
Well, this one is done with the MRP method.
MRP stands for the somewhat word salad-y "Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification".
In simple terms, this is how it works:
- YouGov asks lots of people, across the country, how they intend to vote. It also asks them questions about who they are so they can paint a picture of the voter;
- The pollsters use these pictures to know which characteristics match with someone voting a certain way - this is the regression bit;
- YouGov then combines this with a second piece of information it has - a breakdown of all the constituencies and the kinds of people who live in each one;
- These portraits of how people vote - based on where they live, gender, age and many other factors - are matched with the descriptions of all the different constituencies to produce an estimate for how each seat intends to vote. This is the stratification;
- From there, YouGov provides the estimate of how the general election could turn out.
A huge number of people are asked for their opinions to build up the pictures used in MRP, which makes it more representative.
It's why tonight's poll has Tory MPs quite so nervous - and you can watch Sam break it down in full below:
