TROPICAL UPDATE: PTC #1 forecast to become Tropical Storm Alberto in SW Gulf (2024)

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The National Hurricane Center has dubbed 'Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 in the SW Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to drift west/northwest. As of 4 AM is is still disorganized. PTC 1 may strengthen to the season's first named storm, Alberto, later today.

Designating this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone allows for watches and warnings to be issued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in place for Nueces, Kleberg, San Patricio, Refugio, and Aransas County through Friday.

We should be prepared for wind gusts up to 45 mph, 1-3 ft of storm surge, coastal flooding, inland flooding due to rain, and a chance for a spin up tornado.

The landfall forecast is between Tampico, MX, and the TX/MX border Wednesday night.

Corpus Christi is well north of the forecast cone, but we will see some of the greatest impacts from this storm.

While this system will be well south of Texas, wind speeds will be brisk out of the east, around the top side of this system. The accelerated wind speeds are more because of a tighter pressure gradient between this system and a massive region of high pressure to our NE. That's why these watches are so far away from the center of this development.

Sustained winds of 20-30 mph and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in coastal locations. I don't think we see sustained wind speeds in the tropical storm force range, but the gusts will be up there, hence the tropical storm watch.

Rainfall totals of between 5 and 10" will be probable for many coastal areas. Totals will trend down the farther inland you get. This will be enough to cause flooding in localized areas. The watershed will also get a good soaking, which will help our situation, but not get rid of the water issues.

With tropical systems like this one, sometimes feeder bands of rain will move in to the coast. These are fairly thin, but can drop excessive rain over the same area for an extended period of time. So, it's possible some locations exceed that 5-10" range and get over a foot of rain if that happens.

At the coast, waves will be larger and swells will be longer. Rip current risk will be high and there will be coastal flooding. Tides will run 2-3 ft. above normal. There may be flooded roads on area barrier islands and some dwellings in lower lying areas could become inundated.

We talk about the risk of high surf and dangerous rip currents even when a storm is hundreds of miles away in the 2024 KIII Hurricane Special, you can watch it (or re-watch) it here! The special includes topics like evacuations, hurricane kits, and rip currents - on top of information like the tropical outlook and new data on hurricane-related fatalities. You don't want to miss it!

_______________________________________________________________

Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.

-------------------------------------------------------------

2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.

On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.

The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!